كلية الأفق الجامعية
كلية الأفق الجامعية

Knowledge Update

Asia likely to face severe water crisis by 2050: Study

New York, April 1 (IANS) Asia, the continent that houses roughly half the world's population, will face a "high risk of severe water stress" by 2050 if the current environmental, economical and population growth persists, warns a new study.

The study points out that water shortages are not simply the results of climate change and environmental stress. 

"It's not just a climate change issue. We simply cannot ignore that economic and population growth in society can have a very strong influence on our demand for resources and how we manage them," said one of the researchers Adam Schlosser, a senior research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in US.

"And climate, on top of that, can lead to substantial magnifications to those stresses," Schlosser added.

The findings, published in the journal PLOS One, showed that the median amounts of projected growth and climate change in the next 35 years in Asia would lead to about 1 billion more people becoming "water-stressed" compared to the present time.

To conduct the study, the scientists built upon an existing model developed previously at MIT, the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM), which contains probabilistic projections of population growth, economic expansion, climate, and carbon emissions from human activity. 

They then linked the IGSM model to detailed models of water use for a large portion of Asia encompassing China, India, and many smaller nations.

The scientists then ran an extensive series of repeated projections using varying conditions. 

In what they call the "just growth" scenario, they held climate conditions constant and evaluated the effects of economic and population growth on the water supply. 

In an alternate "just climate" scenario, the scientists held growth constant and evaluated climate-change effects alone. And in a "climate and growth" scenario, they studied the impact of rising economic activity, growing populations, and climate change.

The study gave the researchers a "unique ability to tease out the human (economic) and environmental" factors leading to water shortages and to assess their relative significance, Schlosser said.

The IGSM model also allowed the team to look at how, under the same variables, scenarios change according to countries. This is particularly useful to come up with country-specific strategies, in order to avoid water stress.

"For China, it looks like industrial growth (has the greatest impact) as people get wealthier. In India, population growth has a huge effect. It varies by region," explained lead author Charle Fant, researcher at MIT.

Other variables, such as water supply networks into and out of the different areas, and the way population is distributed around said supplies should be examined, the researchers said. 

"We are assessing the extent to which climate mitigation and adaptation practices - such as more efficient irrigation technologies - can reduce the future risk of nations under high water stress," Schlosser said.​

Hubble reveals millions of stars at centre of our galaxy

Washington, April 1 (IANS) Delving deep into the heart of our Milky Way galaxy, NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has revealed a rich tapestry of more than half a million stars at its core.

Except for a few blue foreground stars, the stars are part of the Milky Way's nuclear star cluster - the most massive and densest star cluster in our galaxy. 

So packed with stars, it is equivalent to having a million suns crammed between us and our closest stellar neighbour Alpha Centauri. 

At the very hub of our galaxy, this star cluster surrounds the Milky Way's central supermassive black hole which is about four million times the mass of our sun.

Astronomers used Hubble's infrared vision to pierce through the dust in the disk of our galaxy that obscures the star cluster. 

Hubble's sharp vision allowed astronomers to measure the movements of the stars over four years. 

Using this information, scientists were able to infer important properties such as the mass and structure of the nuclear star cluster. 

The motion of the stars may also offer a glimpse into how the star cluster was formed -- whether it was built up over time by globular star clusters that happen to fall into the galaxy's centre, or from gas spiraling in from the Milky Way's disk to form stars at the core.

The picture, spanning 50 light-years across, is a mosaic stitched from nine separate images from Hubble's Wide Field Camera 3. 

The centre of the Milky Way is located 27,000 light-years away. 

Astronomers estimate that about 10 million stars in this cluster are too faint to be captured in this image.​

Forgetting process helps us adapt to new surroundings

London, April 1 (IANS) Forgetting can be the result of an active deletion process in the brain rather than a failure to remember -- a mechanism that helps us adapt our behaviour according to the surroundings, says a new study.

The findings could point towards new ways of tackling memory loss associated with conditions such as Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia.

"Our study looks at the biological processes that happen in the brain when we forget something,” said Oliver Hardt from University of Edinburgh in Scotland.

"The next step is to work out why some memories survive whilst others are erased. If we can understand how these memories are protected, it could one-day lead to new therapies that stop or slow pathological memory loss," Hardt said.

The findings were published in The Journal of Neuroscience.

The study conducted in rats could also help scientists to understand why some unwanted memories are so long-lasting - such as those of people suffering from post-traumatic stress disorders.

Memories are maintained by chemical signalling between brain cells that relies on specialised receptors called AMPA receptors. 

The more AMPA receptors there are on the surface where brain cells connect, the stronger the memory.

The team found that the process of actively wiping memories happens when brain cells remove AMPA receptors from the connections between brain cells.

Over time, if the memory is not recalled, the AMPA receptors may fall in number and the memory is gradually erased.

Blocking the removal of AMPA receptors with a drug that keeps them at the surface of the cell stopped the natural forgetting of memories, the study found.​

Patients with skin infections hardly complete antibiotic doses

New York, March 29 (IANS) Patients with skin infections are less likely to take all their prescribed antibiotic doses after leaving the hospital, resulting in new infection or needing additional treatment for the existing skin infection, says a study.

The researchers found that patients with S. aureus skin and soft tissue infections took, on average, just 57 percent of their prescribed antibiotic doses after leaving the hospital.

"These findings suggest that we need better methods to have patients receive antibiotics for skin infections, such as counselling them on the importance of adhering to the medication dosing or by using newer antibiotics that require only once-weekly dosing," said lead researcher Loren Miller from Harbor-UCLA Medical Centre in California, US.

The study, published in the journal Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, followed 188 patients who had been hospitalised and suffered S. aureus associated skin and soft tissue infections. 

The researchers measured antibiotic dosing by using medication containers fitted with electronic caps that reported when the patient opened the antibiotic container. 

By using this measurement system, the researchers found a large discrepancy in patient reports and the electronic measurement. 

Patients reported taking, on average, 96 percent of their medication, or nearly twice the 57 percent reported by the electronic caps.

The researchers were able to obtain complete records on 87 out of the 188 patients. Of the 87 patients, 40 needed additional treatment within 30 days of leaving the hospital. They had a new skin infection, required incision and drainage of their infections or new antibiotics.​

Ocean temperatures can predict heat waves 50 days in advance

New York, March 29 (IANS) The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summer heat waves in the eastern half of the US up to 50 days in advance, say researchers.

The scientists believe that the new technique could improve existing seasonal forecasts, which do not focus on predicting daily extremes.

"Summertime heat waves are among the deadliest weather events, and can have big effects on farming, energy use and other critical aspects of society," said lead author Karen McKinnon from US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado, US.

"If we can give city planners and farmers a heads-up that extreme heat is on the way, we might be able to avoid some of the worst consequences," McKinnon noted.

The pattern that the researchers discovered is a contrast of warmer-than-average water coming up against cooler-than-average seas. 

When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week -- or even on a particular day -- can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is, the study said.

The findings were published in the journal Nature Geoscience. 

For the study, the US scientists divided the country into regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. 

They then focused on the largest of the resulting blocks: a swath that stretches across much of the Midwest and up the East Coast, encompassing important agricultural areas and heavily populated cities.

The researchers looked for a relationship between global sea surface temperature anomalies -- waters warmer or cooler than average -- and extreme heat in the eastern half of the US.

A pattern popped out in the middle of the Pacific, above a point roughly 20 degrees north latitude. The scientists could find the particular configuration of ocean water temperatures, which they named the Pacific Extreme Pattern, not only when the eastern US was already hot, but also in advance of that heat.

"Whatever mechanisms ultimately lead to the heat wave also leave a fingerprint of sea surface temperature anomalies behind," McKinnon said.​

Smartphones to help probe seal numbers decline in Scotland

London, March 29 (IANS) In a first, researchers in Scotland are using smartphone-based technology to find the reason behind plummeting numbers of harbour seals in the country.

Part of a three-year study by researchers at Sea Mammal Research Unit (SMRU) at University of St Andrews in Scotland, the smartphone-based technology is being used to monitor the well-being of marine mammals, The National reported.

"Over the last 15 years, many of the harbour seal populations in the Northern Isles and on the north and east coasts of Scotland have been declining. Marine data collected during this project on Orkney will help to assess the causes, management and mitigation options in relation to the harbour seals' decline and to prioritise future research directions," Bernie McConnell, SMRU's deputy director, was quoted as saying. 

For the study, marine telemetry tags will be attached to the fur at the back of the heads of a number of harbour seals in Orkney Archipelago of Scotland. 

Small and light, the tags work like smartphones, sending information back to scientists and will eventually drop off when the seal moults, the report explained.

The study is being carried out at the request of the Scottish Government and Scottish Natural Heritage after concerns were raised about the survival of harbour seals in the country.

"This exciting, collaborative study is vital to help us to better understand the drivers of population change in Scottish harbour seals, and to evaluate the potential conservation and management options open to us," professor John Baxter from Scottish Natural Heritage was quoted as saying.

Harbour seals - one of two seal species in Britain - have declined by up to 90 percent in some areas in and around the north and east coast of Scotland, including Orkney, since 2000.​

Expectation of relevance key to memory formation

New York, March 29 (IANS) Ever wondered why we remember certain scenes from films or books without much effort while forgetting others despite paying attention? New research suggests that people tend to remember only those things better that they expect to have future relevance.

Much of what a person can remember is based on their expectation of the information they will need to recall, the study said.

"What we're showing is that attention is not enough to ensure accurate memory," said one of the researchers Brad Wyble, assistant professor of psychology at Pennsylvania State University in the US. 

"You need some kind of expectation that attributing certain features to the object is important," Wyble noted.

The findings were published in the journal Cognition.

The researchers tested 60 participants and asked them to watch videos in which two balls were thrown between multiple people. 

The first ball thrown was the target ball. Participants counted the number of times the ball was passed. The second ball was the distractor ball. Each participant watched 36 trials, recording their counts of the target ball after each. The balls in each video were red, green, blue or purple. 

For the first 31 trials, participants chose only the number of passes made with the target ball.

After the thirty-second trial, a message popped up on the participant's screen that read, "This is a surprise memory test! Here we test the “colour” of the target ball. Press a corresponding number to indicate the 'colour' of the target ball."

To this question, 37 percent of participants -- 22 of 60 -- responded with the incorrect colour of the ball, and 16 of these 22 incorrect responses selected the colour of the distractor ball.

In further experiments, the researchers found that once participants realised they would need to report the colour of the ball, they were able to do so with high accuracy.

This indicates that much of what a person can remember is based on their expectation of the information they will need to recall.

"The key discovery was that attending an object for an extended period of time does not ensure that all of the features of that object will be correctly associated with it in memory," Wyble noted.​

Key protein can reverse deadly heart condition

New York, March 29 (IANS) An international team of scientists has identified a key protein that has the potential to reverse established cardiac fibrosis, the abnormal thickening of the heart valves, which progresses to heart failure.

Cardiac fibrosis occurs when healthy cardiac cells are replaced with fibrous connective tissue, causing scarring and a stiffer and less compliant cardiac muscle. 

The researchers found that CCN5, a matricellular protein, can potentially be used for the development of new anti-cardiac fibrosis therapies.

"Our research is the first to demonstrate the ability to reverse cardiac fibrosis in heart failure models by targeting a specific gene," said lead researcher Roger Hajjar, professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, US.

The findings, detailed online in the Journal of American College of Cardiology (JACC), demonstrated that CCN5 might provide a novel platform for the development of targeted anti-cardiac fibrosis therapies, which could benefit many patients with previously untreatable heart failure and other cardiovascular diseases.

"Since CCN5 is a secreted protein, we may be able to deliver the CCN5 protein itself rather than the CCN5 gene in the form of recombinant virus or stem cells that are engineered to express CCN5," one of the researchers Woo Jin Park, professor at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) in South Korea, said.

The team induced extensive cardiac fibrosis in experimental animal models of heart failure, and then proceeded to transfer CCN5 to the hearts. 

Eight weeks later, they examined the cellular and molecular effects. The results revealed that CCN5 reversed cardiac fibrosis in the animals. 

The therapeutic efficacy of CCN5 is now being investigated in pre-clinical models of heart failure with extensive fibrosis, the researchers said.​

WHO wants South East Asia to be more wary of diabetes

New Delhi, March 29 (IANS) The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday urged the Southeast Asian countries to promote educational campaigns regarding self-management of diabetes and make its treatment cost effective.

"Diabetes is of particular concern in the South East Asian Region. More than one out of every four of the 3.7 million diabetes-related deaths globally occur in this region," said Poonam Khetrapal, director for WHO South East Asian region.

"If diabetes prevalence continues to rise, the personal, social and economic consequences will deepen," Khetrapal said.

The South East Asian Region is generally considered to be made up of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei, Singapore, and East Timor.

World Health Day this year focuses on diabetes and calls for scaling up efforts to prevent, care for and detect the disease to arrest the global epidemic which is hitting the low and middle income countries the most.

According to WHO records, over 96 million people in the world do not know that they are suffering from diabetes.

"Diabetes rarely makes headlines, and yet it will be the world's seventh largest killer by 2030 unless intense and focused efforts are made by governments, communities and individuals," said Khetrapal.

Nearly 90 percent of all diabetes cases are of Type 2 diabetes, largely the result of excess bodyweight and physical inactivity, she said.

"Diabetes is both preventable and treatable if detected early. If not properly managed the disease causes serious damage to every major organ in the body, resulting in heart attacks, strokes, blindness and nerve damage," said Khetrapal. 

World Health Day is celebrated on April 7 every year to mark the anniversary of the founding of WHO in 1948. ​

Enzyme may cut heart disease risk caused by HIV drug

New York, March 29 (IANS) Researchers have identified an enzyme that is likely to lower the risk of heart related diseases caused by antiviral medicines used for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Approximately 37 million people are living with HIV, according to the World Health Organisation.

Antiviral medications are used to control HIV and prevent its progression to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). 

"The use of antivirals in HIV patients is very important to control the virus, suppress symptoms and improve quality of life," said lead author William Durante, professor at the University of Missouri in the US.

However, these antivirals are linked to the development of metabolic disorders such as diabetes and obesity, and they are also known to increase the risk of heart diseases. 

The study, published in the journal Free Radical Biology and Medicine, focused on protease inhibitors -- a common antiviral used to treat HIV, which disrupts HIV's ability to replicate and infect cells. 

But, this inhibitor causes malfunctioning in the endothelial cells, which make up the inner lining of blood vessels, and can lead to cardiovascular disease.

Using a cell-based model of cultured human endothelial cells, the team increased the amount of the enzyme heme oxygenase-1, or HO-1 within the cells.

"Increasing the presence of HO-1 in our model before exposing it to a protease inhibitor allowed the medication to do its job without causing endothelial dysfunction," Durante noted.

"HO-1 shows great promise as a defender of endothelial cells in patients being treated for HIV," he added.

More research is needed to verify that HO-1 will prevent endothelial cell dysfunction with all antiviral medications, the researchers maintained. ​